Exports post 30pc rise, October a laggard
Kawsar Khan

Bangladesh has posted 30.68 percent export growth in the July-October period, earning $5,251.49 million against $4,018.67 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year in signs of slowing growth.

In the same period, exports posted a 1.29 percent surplus over its strategic target, with remarkable growth in knitwear, woven garments and frozen foods -- the main export earners of the country, according to data by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

But export earnings dipped 7.48 percent in October from the same month last year that exporters said was due to probable fallout from the global financial crisis.

Government officials and economists said it would still take some time to conclude whether the country was being affected by the global financial meltdown, however mildly.

Bangladesh earned $867.69 million in October compared to $941.48 million in the same month a year ago, which fell 25.85 percent short of the $1,170 million strategic export target for the time.

Although exports plummeted in October, the overall export for July-October is on the rise indicating that Bangladesh is still not affected by the global crisis, said EPB Vice Chairman Shahab Ullah yesterday.

"Despite lower growth in October, I have seen that export performances in November is better than in October, meaning the fall is an unusual event which has no link with the global crisis," he said.

However the exporters said they were feeling that the country's export was eventually affected by the ongoing global financial crisis.

"We are saying from the very beginning that the global problem, which will eventually trickle down to Bangladesh, requires safeguard measures to protect the country from its effect. But the government is claiming that the country is immune to the crisis, which the export figure proved wrong in October," said Fazlul Hoque, president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

The buyers are now placing orders at reduced rates compared to the previous months to gain more competitiveness in international market that is reducing the profit margin of local players, Hoque said, urging the government to sit with all stakeholders for finding solutions to the crisis.

October is a transitional month between winter and spring when exports generally remain low as exporters shift from making winter clothes to spring clothes, exporters said of October's export performance.

"But we are already feeling the pinch of global crisis as almost all the buyers except Walmart reported a sales decline in recent months," said Mohd A Salam, first vice president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

International weekly The Economist last week reported that the two emerging economies of Asia -- China and India had suffered an export fall due to the global financial crisis.

According to the report, India's exports in October decreased 12 percent over the same month last year, while China's export fell 2 percent and import 18 percent in November.

To tackle the crisis different countries including India and Pakistan have depreciated their currencies, the BGMEA leader said.

When the issue was raised, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Mustafizur Rahman said this export downtrend suggested that there exists volatility in international demand. However, it was still premature to tag the fall with the global crisis, he added.

He, however, urged the government and all others concerned to observe the whole situation cautiously as the overall apparel import of USA decreased in recent times, while garment export of Vietnam and Cambodia to the US market also marked a decline.

Exports to Europe and the US generally increase after the Christmas but the situation may be different this year if the buyers have a bigger inventory this time due to lower sales, he said.

According to export statistics, in the July-October period, woven garments showed 27 percent growth fetching $1,817.50 million and knitwear earned $2,188 million with a robust 37.48 percent growth.

Frozen food remained the third largest export earner of the country, bringing $203.61 million with nearly 15 percent growth.

Petroleum byproducts, terry towel, textile fabrics, footwear, tea and home textile also showed positive export growth during the time.

On the downside, pharmac-euticals, vegetables, camera parts, cut flower/foliage, iron chain, raw jute, jute goods, electronics, including some others, posted negative growth.

kawsar@thedailystar.net